Heat pumps · Sizing7 min

What size heat pump does my home actually need?

Short answer

A room-by-room heat-loss calculation to MCS MIS 3005 is the only honest answer; typical UK three-bed semis land between five and nine kilowatts. Rule-of-thumb sizing from floor area or the old boiler's output is the single largest cause of undersized or oversized installs.

Evidence

  • Source

    MCS MIS 3005 (Heat pump installation standard)

    MCS standard governing heat pump system design and installation in the UK.

    The MCS installation standard that requires a room-by-room heat-loss calculation before a heat pump is specified.

  • Source

    Microgeneration Certification Scheme

    UK certification body for low-carbon heat and power technologies.

    Sets and audits the heat-pump installer standard the calculation sits under.

  • Fact

    Air-source heat pump SCOP (well-designed UK installation)

  • Source

    Energy Saving Trust

    Independent UK organisation publishing energy efficiency guidance.

    Publishes real-world field-trial evidence on the running-cost impact of correct sizing.

Every number on this page resolves through our knowledge graph: Fact, Claim, Cost or Source. Nothing is asserted without a trail back to its origin.

Decision guidance

Sizing is the decision that quietly determines running cost, comfort and lifespan for the next fifteen to twenty years. Get it right on paper before anyone drills a hole.

When this applies

  • Every heat-pump install, without exception. Skipping the survey is a red flag on its own.
  • Any home where the fabric has changed since the boiler went in (loft topped up, cavities filled, windows replaced).
  • Homes considering staged fabric upgrades; the sizing should reflect the intended end state, not today's leakier version.

When it doesn't

  • Never; there is no shortcut that produces the right answer.
  • Quotes that skip room-by-room heat loss and quote from floor area or your existing boiler kW; treat as commercial estimates, not designs.

Practical detail

What a proper sizing calculation actually looks like.

MIS 3005 requires a room-by-room heat-loss calculation using the fabric U-values, ventilation rates and design outdoor temperature for your postcode. The output is a peak load in kilowatts at the coldest expected day, plus a per-room emitter schedule showing whether each radiator is big enough at the proposed flow temperature. The quote should include both.

If a proposal shows a single headline kW figure and a total price with no room-by-room table, the sizing has not been done. Ask for it in writing before you sign.

Why floor-area rules of thumb consistently mislead.

A quick "one hundred watts per square metre" figure lands close for a mid-terrace with average insulation and completely wrong for a solid-walled Victorian end-of-terrace or a well-insulated new build. The same house at either end of the sizing error costs money for different reasons: undersized units run flat out and can't hold temperature in a cold snap; oversized units short-cycle, wear their compressors out early and hit a lower SCOP for the whole life of the system.

The flow-temperature decision that comes with sizing.

The lower the design flow temperature, the higher the SCOP; but the larger the radiators need to be. A well-designed retrofit typically lands between forty-five and fifty-five degrees flow, which usually means upsizing radiators in the two or three worst rooms rather than the whole house. Ask which rooms the survey wants to change and whether that fits how you use those rooms.